US oil prices are adding to consumer and business strain as the Iran war pushes diesel toward $5.15 per gallon and gasoline toward $3.85, with Monday expected to bring another volatile session. Analyst Patrick De Haan has forecast the national pump average at $3.80 to $3.85 per gallon Monday, while $4 fuel remains a near-term possibility. The dual impact of rising gasoline and diesel prices is squeezing both individual consumers and the businesses that deliver goods across the country.
The price surge began on February 28 when the US-Israel campaign against Iran commenced, triggering a sustained rise in global oil prices that has continued without significant interruption for three weeks. The national gasoline average has risen 23% to $3.70 from below $3 per gallon before the war, while diesel prices have risen in parallel and now threaten to reach $5.15 per gallon nationally. The combined impact on American household budgets and business operating costs is substantial and growing.
Friday’s US attack on Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil processing and export facility, has deepened global supply concerns at a time when markets were already under intense pressure. Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows daily, has removed millions of barrels per day from available global supply. Brent crude ranged from $103 to $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude settled near $94 following a Sunday spike to $100.
California faces average pump prices above $5 per gallon, with some Los Angeles stations already charging over $8. Diesel prices, critical for the trucking and rail industries, could reach $5.05 to $5.15 per gallon across the country. The CEOs of Exxon, Conoco, and Chevron have each engaged the White House on supply risks, with Exxon’s Darren Woods specifically warning about the inflationary threat posed by speculative market activity.
US stocks opened Monday with modest gains, the S&P 500 rising approximately 1% following a brief oil price retreat. Major oil company shares have surged to record highs since the conflict began. The rising cost of both gasoline and diesel reflects the breadth of the economic impact of the Iran war on the American economy, an impact that will persist until the conflict reaches a resolution.